Sell 'em all quick....

Mikeluke, it does seem likely that ICE machinery usage may well become a rarity in time, how much time, I have no idea. However it does seem that there will be those as keen on Porsche and classics in general as there are those still keen on horses and who devote their time finances and energy to enjoy their interest.

I suspect that which is available to us today relative to usage and enjoyment of ICE machinery may be greatly reduced in time, and also suspect that part of the evolutionary processes involved will hopefully contain the possibility of allowances if not encouragement for those whose interests are ICE related.

I suspect it is possible that if and when real restrictions on private usage of ICE machines for normal transportation purposes that at that time Taycan and other Porsches that have taken up where ICE left off will have been around for a while and perhaps the young will be well into EV admiration and usage by then...or indeed whatever other vehicles might be available... Still waiting for Chris Harris to test the Taycan but I think he enjoyed the 919 Hybrid..(-:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D4l4TUj8sQ

Perhaps in time those who seem dead against the demise of the ICE as everyday private transport today, may soon be looked upon as the Luddites of tomorrow... :floor:

Be interesting to keep this chat and look back in 15 years time and see how right or wrong we were and whether we have all been brainwashed by the Greta crew by then!!

Just like we said a few years ago when the Porsche classic market was about to crumble :hand:

Impossible to be sure exactly how it's going to pan out. But also impossible to ignore so many trends pointing in the same direction.

Environment
Whatever your views on that as a broad issues, it's clear emissions regs pertaining to ICE cars are only going to get tougher

Policing
Not likely to get laxer. Possibility of black boxes required to be road legal at some point (note, these are trivial to retrofit to classic cars)

Insurance
Possibly no change, but what if you need a black box to get insured? May not happen, but add it to the list of possibles

Driverless
One day, the use of human driven cars may be restricted or banned

Simple obsolescence
As the years tick by after the ban on new ICEs, buying petrol will get harder and harder until it gets to the point that it represents a real practical problem

OK, not all of this is going to happen in our lifetimes. Some of it may never happen. But there are an awful lot of trends all pointing the same way - ie ICE cars becoming at least a lot less convenient to use on public roads and at some point more or less impossible. It'll only take some of those trends to come true to make the use of ICE cars far less appealing.

I think we're mostly OK for about 10 years. After that, things may begin to get a lot less amenable.

So, I agree, drive while you can. And here's the kicker. If it turns out the noose doesn't tighten quite as quickly as feared, well, carry on driving. What have you lost but a bit of money you can;t take with you.

So, for god's sake don't baby that garage queen, or put off buying the Porsche you're considering much longer. Buy it. Then drive it, drive it, drive it. Before you wake up one day and find you pretty much can't.

I suspect those who may tend to be most vehement in their imaginings of future trends may ever be wide of the mark, and for a time their aggressiveness may encourage folk to rise up and follow... shrug..! If it is entirely logical that EV will fail and in so many ways, one has to wonder why Porsche developed the Taycan...or perhaps on this forum to a lesser degree, why so many other motor manufacturers have invested so heavily in the technology... I am using no specialist economic, scientific, or manufacturing knowledge in my thinking, more likely a degree of nothing more than the acquired logic of an old duffer..?

As for the present/future value of ICE Porsche and classics in general.... OK, OK, I get it to suggest to the faithful that the basis of their beliefs might be worthy of reassessment relative to evolutionary forces, is ever bound to find a degree of resistance.... Evolution WILL alter much, as seems to have ever been proven since man has acquired the ability to research and record historical events... or do you think otherwise..?

I suspect as human nature ever seems to dictate, that there would have been those around at the time when the horseless carriage started to become prominent, and who prioritised their interests either for and against, and that regardless how forceful the arguments on every level against the increase in numbers of the noisy smelly machines, there would have been a process of evolution involved, be it the red flag, the 70mph speed limit or ever restrictive emission reduction regulation, it seems THINGS are still and may ever be in the process of evolution ....?

T`would seem a shame for anyone who has bought into classic car ownership and who places any NEED for their initial expenditure to have a measure of ability to being converted back into "cash" either quickly or in time, as part of their future financial dependency, may be best to think again in terms of evolutionary forces....?

On a recent you tube vid there was a chap seemingly promoting the INVESTMENT potential of his 996... I suspect some of his reasoning may have been in comparison to the values of other Porsche models, given it seems that the 996 may be the less costly of the 911 variants available and it might be difficult to find any air cooled rot box priced below that of a reasonably running 996 other than perhaps the GT and Turbo variants...?

When looking at the air cooled 911`s they would seem to be a breed apart in terms of evaluation thus to consider any of the later direct 911 derivatives as having anything like the same investment potential seems wide of the mark, unless they are considered in some way rarer, for it seems even rare Fords can be deemed as "investments" up till NOW, but for how much longer given the imagined shape of things to come..?

As has been suggested near the start of this thread for those whose pleasure is to get out and about in their Porsche, then to do as much of that as seems possible, would seem to provide your ideals in terms of returns relative to your Porsche..?

Those who justify it`s existence as an occasional daily transport may have to scrub that from the list and perhaps increasingly so with the passage of time..? I suspect those who`s ideal is to own a garage queen might have the potential to last the longest in terms of deriving pleasure from their Porsche, for it seems that regardless of the speed and severity of restrictions on usage this group of enthusiasts will be those least affected more so if they have no need or desire to cash in at any time....

As a group, at present those better fixed baby boomers may seem best placed, but not excluding the young who have wealth enough that the cash value of their Porsche is of no importance now or at any future time in terms of air cooled ownership..for it seems as the air cooled will ever be those considered as "classic"...? Of course there will be those who determine every Porsche is or has classic potential, but like it or not your thinking may be subject to evolution, just like all else.... one only has to scan the numbers of various 911 derivatives advertised on this forum to note the ratio of air cooled to later models...?

Just thinking in type... ld: :?:

Interesting times indeed, now that No10 is in firm control of No11, it will be an education to see how much BJ or his advisors tend to tackle climate change.. if at all, given there is a budget in circa 4 weeks..?

Yeah, sure, statement of intent have been made re climate change, suggestions on this that and the other too, BUT I suspect taxation, like sheep dogs is one sure way of moving the shee...err...population in the desired direction of travel..whatever that might be..? But then a politicians priority it to retain power so the sheep dogs are taught not to nip the heels of the sheep in the process of shifting them to pastures new..?

Can we look forward to, cuts in road tax for "Classic" performance vehicles that may only be used for circa 3k miles a year, or do you think there is something better on the cards to improve the "investment" potential of your classic...? But then what might be defined as a Classic...hmmm? Can not remember the exactitudes re applying for Classic/Historic status, though think the current cut off year may be 1979, and I suspect a measure of "originality" may be part of the requirements to be determined Classic.... Thus it does seem that OFFICIALDOM has taken it upon it`s self to determine that which may or not be determined a Classic, and if that is the case the question has to be WHY did they do so... Yeah well to improve on the value of your "investment." ? RestoMods need not apply it seems.... best drive those Singers into the ground, perhaps..? (-:

If anyone is trying to sell you on the idea of investment potential or, that this or that is Classic or will be a future Classic... Like so many Youtubers promoting their business, or the value of their car... It might be worth pressing a re-set on your thinking in the hope of introducing a bit of reality..?

It would seem that perhaps the best way to maximise returns from a classic or indeed any ICE machine is to make good use of it relative to your own priorities, be that from track day demon to garage queen.. whatever... ENJOY. :?:

Not sure about all the above but this global warming is wreaking havoc, very cold in Basra and then there's all the snow in Bahdgad :grin:

The ice age is coming, the sun's zooming in!

spongebob squarepants said:

Not sure about all the above but this global warming is wreaking havoc, very cold in Basra and then there's all the snow in Bahdgad :grin:

Click to expand...

:grin:


Luddite don't get too swept up in it yet. The times they are a changing' an' all that but you're becoming the new forum profit of doom. :hand:

I think you've mentioned values in every post. Obviously that's one of the main points to some folk and I for one wouldn't really want my £60k car turning into a £10k one anytime soon but by the time it does I'll be too old to care and remember, cars never used to be investments. I think I've made money on one car out of about 50 and that was a modest amount. Nothing I can't earn at work.

I'm far more bothered about the threat to my freedom of being able to drive for pleasure, when I want and also my retirement plans which involve doing off in a motorhome with my motorbike on the back.

We are all aware of the values debate, but the arse isn't dropping out of the market yet.
Don't panic Mr Mannering.

I think as 911 owners we are in a better position than some other folk who own classic cars due 911 spanning many different generations and thus keeping interest levels high with different age groups.

A big 'want' is an e-type jag for me, the prices of those are tumbling at the minute. I wasn't sure quite sure why until a mate pointed out to me that most kids now don't have a clue what an e-type is and have no desire to own one when they have the money to buy one. If the next generation aren't going to buy them the prices will continue to fall regardless of the situation with electric cars coming to market.

Conversely the cost of old Fords has gone crazy as my generation now have the money to buy them, they just aren't interested in 60's cars as they have no affinity attached to them. I think you really need to have finger on the pulse and a massive slice of luck to make money on classics at the minute.

Marky, I am too..err..mature to get swept up in anything...(-:

I apologise if it seems I may be the profit of doom, for that is not my intention, I come here to learn through discussion. I do hope your retirement plans work out as you might hope.. My good lady and I took on a few Southern European trips over a few years in our old open top sports car, adventures which we greatly enjoyed, now a few years into retirement, I doubt we could manage the physical exposure of such trips today, so perhaps best not leave it too late..? Though having typed that we did manage a trip to LM classic and on down to Beynac in the auto tin top a couple of years back, would have been a killer without air con..jeez..!!!

As I have typed more than once I claim no expertise in economics or much else, though I am unsure if those holding degrees from the renowned temples of financial education in the US or UK, who used those qualifications to then become top line economists or bankers, saw the signs of the impending financial crash, which sure as 1+1=2, MUST have been so obviously in the making for some considerable time prior to the crash it`s self...But NO..? As our American cousins say.. Go figure..?

Seems to me that the Porsche market is exactly that, a market more than interesting or fun transport, thus if you look at it from a market perspective what are the influences in any market..? Markets rise and fall and in the process there are those who make money from the changes in value both up and down..? For there to be winners there have to be losers, and the smart market managers keep an eagle out for millisecond by millisecond movements that might affect that market and the faster their data systems can operate the more potential they have to make make deals ahead of their their competitors...?

Now it seems to me that quite a few milliseconds have passed since a number governments have declared climate emergencies, and the media has been earning it`s coin promoting/educating us as to the amount of waste and contamination of the planet from every angle imaginable..? Choose to believe the media or not, car manufacturers have for some time now been searching out alternatives to ICE, and spending HOW MUCH in the process...hmm?

Sure I have used the terms Investment and value but surely I also mentioned ENJOYMENT of a Porsche or classic in any way one cares to choose as perhaps providing the best possible returns...? I might suspect anyone who locked on to the words "investment" or "value" may have those two aspects high on their own list of priorities...? NOT that I would suggest that either are unimportant, and more so to some than others, given after house purchase, vehicle(s) may be the next most expensive outlay for folk on average incomes....?

Macca38, I agree with much of your thinking relative to the time span of Porsche production and that it covers a few generations logically affecting variations in terms of appreciation across the range. By comparison Morgan as a sports car manufacturer have been around even longer, though I doubt it has a similar popularity across the generations..? Thus it seems there may be other factors at play..?

I suspect the effect of baby boomers loosing their grip on the perch will have more of an effect in the Morgan marketplace than in the Porsche market, though I also suspect climate change thinking and legislation may have an even greater effect..? Yup, as I typed earlier, have seen mid 80`s Capri`s sell for £50k...though I suspect the age group for that may also be getting on a bit now..? (-: I suspect even younger folk will be looking for all the bells and whistles that came with digitisation of everything... IF they are not greatly inhibited by one means or other from buying such machinery..socially, politically, or otherwise motivated.. :?:

OK..OK... I get it, you have your fingers in your ears and are singing la la la la....(-:

My thinking is that for the RETURNS scenario to work out relative to your Porsche/Classic ICE INVESTMENT....... Ideally the cash you spend can hopefully be written off in terms of your ENJOYMENT of the machine in whatever time period there may be left to enjoy it, and during that period of time whatever it might be, I suspect the restrictions to enjoy it on the road may increase with the passage of time....?

For those who can NOT just write off the costs involved in their Porsche/Classic or worse still are dependant on it`s value retention or increase relative to ones personal future financial planning... Please take time monitor reality..

As for what reality and the rate of evolution might be...? If you beam up the vid in this link, you might widen your thinking a tad, all be it from a German perspective...?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcXjVxaKzv4

:?:

That is an interesting watch, Luddite, thank you. Certainly the author believes that a zero emissions future for new cars will happen faster than we might think.
However, what does this mean for existing (ICE) vehicles? I think the answer is........it depends. It depends on what people want, and what we tell our politicians to do. What worries me is that the hysteria of the "climate crisis" lobby may result in ICE cars becoming seen as anti-social. If enough policy makers think there's votes in banning ICE cars, or taxing them off the road, well, that could be the outcome.

I've posted this before, but if you like proper music, have a listen to "Red Barchetta" by Rush, featuring the late and truly great Neil Peart on drums. It's all about a dystopian future where rebels race old sports cars around the countryside, thereby defying the Motor Law.

The End is Nigh

Surely thinking rationally about classic cars and the small mileage they do they are not killing the planet like coal fired power stations. I went to see a new bodyshop last week about a touch up. It was full of old motors,vw camper,944,E46 bmw,mgb and he doesn't aim for the classic market.
He said he was very busy and had been all winter. Do the government want to see the industry around old cars die?
Why do Easyjet and the like not get more grief over air travel pollution? Nobody have the balls to take them on? How many unnecessary flights are taken each year? My relations alone were probably over 20 last year.
If over 70% of pollution is in the production of a new car why not educate people to keep them longer?

Stillchill99, don't you come on here with your rational thoughts...."how dare you"!!
I know this site isn't political, so all I'll add is that the UK contributes (I think) around 2% of global CO2, and I imagine that classic cars are a tiny proportion of that 2%. So rationally it shouldn't matter a jot.

If any politician thinks a policy will play with the voters they'll favour it. Most voters don't drive old cars, but most (well, many) voters do fly short haul. Most voters have no idea how much carbon is used to make a new electric car, or the awful consequences of rare metal mining, and most voters appear to believe that electric cars are powered by fairy dust.

Rational politicians dealing in unpleasant truths, or virtue-signalling politicians pandering to dimwitted voters, hmm let me me think which is more likely......